Our concern leading to our misperceptions Our misperceptions creating our concern

An interesting recent study by Ipsos MORI provides new evidence that political ignorance is a serious problem in many countries.

Survey respondents in the 14 nations included in the study massively overestimate the general unemployment rate and the percentage of immigrants in their country’s population, reported Reuters. Even in Sweden, the country that scored highest, many respondents don’t have a clue about politically important issues such as the unemployment rate (which they think is three times higher than it actually is) and immigration (which they overestimate by “only” about 45 percent).

Italians rank highest in the “Ignorance Index”, closely followed by Americans.

Ilya Somin, writing in a Washington Post blog, points out that many of these mistakes might have political consequences. Undue pessimism about the economy is obviously relevant, he says, since economic issues are almost always near the top of voters’ list of priorities. Overestimating the percentage of immigrants may promote exaggerated fears of being uprooted by foreign cultures and strengthen support for restricting migration, which can inflict great harm on both would-be immigrants and natives.

Reality bites

So why are people’s perceptions so far from reality? Writing in The Guardian, Bobby Duffy, managing director of Ipsos MORI’s Social Research Institute, tries to give some answers.

Duffy says it’s partly that people just struggle with basic math, and that some clearly misunderstand the questions.

The media also plays a role in deepening our misperceptions. But we need to be careful here. “We can’t lay the blame entirely at one particular or even type of newspaper: if the media are a cause, it’s a much broader, global issue,” says Duffy. “The real driver is how we remember information, where vivid anecdotes stick, regardless of whether they are describing something very rare.”

When answering these questions such as crime rate and unemployment rate, we are sending a message about what’s worrying us as much as trying to get the right answers. “Cause and effect can run both ways, with our concern leading to our misperceptions as much as our misperceptions creating our concern,” he says.